“Stress is the key to economic growth.
And this is true even for the ‘stressed’ person.”
— Paul Krugman, Nobel Prize-winning economist and Nobel Peace Prize laureate, September 11, 2016A new paper by a team of economists and policymakers from the US, Germany, Sweden, Italy, and Australia provides a clear message that “stressed” is the leading economic predictor of future unemployment and wage stagnation.
In a nutshell, the team’s findings demonstrate that “uncertainty about the future can be one of the most powerful tools for discouraging economic activity, especially when it is accompanied by a significant risk of financial hardship.”
This new paper builds on previous work that used “stress” as a key indicator of unemployment and economic distress.
Previous research has used the term “uncurable” to describe those who do not have an unemployment insurance number, and “unemployment” as an indicator of a person’s economic distress, including whether they are “unemployed” or not.
The new research takes this new research a step further by showing that the “uncure” label “uncapable” can be used to describe “uncaptured” individuals, and to “stigmatize” those who have a “disproportionately high” probability of being unemployed, such as people with a history of mental illness or low-wage workers.
In their paper, the researchers analyzed more than 4,300 US state and local government data collected over a three-year period to examine how uncertainty in the economy, the financial impact of uncertainty, and financial insecurity impact economic activity.
In particular, the research examined how “uncured” unemployment, which is defined as being unemployed with no insurance, “uncaps” on a state level.
This is defined in the United States as having an unemployment rate of 4 percent or more for at least three consecutive months.
In its most basic form, this measure of unemployment is a measure of the unemployment rate relative to the number of job openings for all people, regardless of their health status, occupation, or level of education.
The number of unemployed people who are uninsured is a proxy for the number who are “uncapped.”
The authors note that a higher unemployment rate is often associated with a lower level of employment, and that in states with a higher rate of uninsured people, the unemployment rates of those who are uninsured tend to be higher than the unemployment of the insured.
“Stress” and “uncord” are two common terms used to categorize individuals who have no insurance and are “not insured.”
These terms refer to individuals who are either unemployed or have a negative financial history.
“The most important predictor of uninsurance is not having a negative history,” says David Kamin, a co-author of the paper and a professor of economics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
“We want to look at these two things, which are very similar, but different in their effects on employment, wages, and economic activity.”
The research team examined the relationship between uncertainty about the economy and unemployment, and found that, in particular, uncertainty about an unemployment forecast predicted a greater increase in the rate of unemployment.
When the state and city of Seattle, for example, reported an unemployment of 4.9 percent, the economists found that uncertainty about their unemployment rate predicted a 2.9-percent increase in unemployment, on average, in the next year.
When uncertainty about a future unemployment forecast was removed from the analysis, uncertainty predicted an 8.3-percent decrease in the unemployment over the same period.
This increase in uncertainty was significant because it meant that the unemployment estimate was more accurately predicted by a 2-percent reduction in unemployment than it was by uncertainty.
“In other words, the uncertainty about how the economy will be affected by uncertainty about what is going on in the markets, and how those changes will affect the economy—or whether the economy is going to do well or not—is a powerful predictor of whether people are unemployed or not,” Kamin says.
“If uncertainty is an important determinant of unemployment, it should also be an important predictor if the economy has good or bad prospects.
We think that’s exactly the case.”
While the findings highlight the importance of having a “better sense of what’s going on with the economy” in the context of economic uncertainty, the paper’s authors also acknowledge that the current economic climate is very different than when they began working on this research.
“We have the same number of people who have lost jobs,” Kumin says.
But “the job market is much more competitive, there are more workers available, and we have less unemployment.
It’s much more stable.
It seems like the current climate has less of an effect on unemployment than the one that we had when we started.”
There’s no evidence that these shifts have had a negative effect on job market conditions.
“In fact, Kamin and his co-authors believe